Thursday, September 24, 2009

The Picks Part 1- Week 3 Lines.

Ok, so since I'm getting comments asking for more sports talk, I've decided to go full out Bill Simmons and give you guys a few thousand words about this week in THE National Football League.

Last week I went 13-3 and 11-5 the first week of the season all against the spread. Now we'll get to see if I actually know what I'm talking about this year or if I'm just getting lucky over the first couple of weeks. We'll be asking ourselves the age old question of whether or not I know what I'm talking when it comes to football.

As always you can track my picks here:


Let's look at the first game:

Steeler -4.5 OVER Bengals. I tried to talk myself into the Bengals because they're at home, they just beat the Packers and they entertain the hell out of me. But I can't do it. The Steelers are the world champs and I have to believe that coming off that game they gave away in Chicago, they're going to be focused and at least a TD better than Cincy. I went both ways on this and can't back the Bengals.

Lions + 6.5 OVER Redskins. The Redskins suck. They barely beat the Rams last week 9-7. If they don't come into Detroit and blow the doors off the Lions, Jim Zorn should start packing his stuff. The Redskins shouldn't be this bad. They still have Clinton Portis, they still have an elite defense, but unfortunately they still have Jason Campbell at QB. I don't think the Lions win this game, but I am sure they will cover. I have zero faith in the Redskins winning by a TD against anyone.

Packers -6.5 OVER St Louis. The Packers are good. I don't know what happened last week with Cincy, but I'm calling it a fluke. Aaron Rodgers has looked great, that defense is scary when they're not giving up 34 pts to the Bengals and uh they're playing the Rams. The Rams have scored 1 TD in 2 games. The Rams don't do anything well, plus they have Steven Jackson who is going to ruin Savoy's FF team by himself. The Packers are a lock this game, you know if Gambling were allowed.

49ers + 7.5 OVER Vikings. The 49ers appear to have bought in completely to Mike Singletary. They got over 200 Yds last week against the Seahawks and one of the Williams' is out for Minnesota meaning the league's top ranked rushing D is missing one of it's most vital cogs. the Niners don't seem to give up a ton of points and I'm expecting this to come down to who can move the chains more ADP or Frank Gore. I don't think Minny can score enough to cover this spread.

Falcons + 4.5 OVER Patriots. The Pats aren't good right now. This pains me to no end, but it's true. I watched the preseason, I've watched both games. Our defense is atrocious, Brady is NOT ok right now. Mayo the only competent LB we have is out for god knows how long, the DBs are old and slow, and the offensive line can't block. I actually think Atlanta is going to win this game straight up. Atlanta still hasn't gotten a good day from Michael Turner, Matt Ryan is right where he was at the end of last year, and Tony Gonzalez is still the best TE in the league. Plus they have Abraham and an underrated defense. I think it's retarded that the Pats are favored by more than 3.

Titans + 2.5 OVER Jets. I like the Jets D, I like Sanchez, but this is a MUST win for Tennessee. If they fall to 0-3, they can forget about this year. That AFC South is way too tough with Indy, and Houston this year. Plus the Titans have two heartbreaking losses this year, and a power running game unlike anything the Jets have seen thus far.

Eagles - 9.5 OVER Chiefs. The Chiefs do absolutely nothing well. Their coach is talking about benching their 62 million dollar free agent QB. They fired their Offensive coordinator 3 weeks ago, Larry Johnson is done and they traded Tony Gonzalez. The Eagles on the other hand are starting Kevin Kolb who abuses the privilege of sucking, and they just got lit up for 48 pts by the Saints. You couldn't pay me enough to bet on this game. I hate giving the Eagles this many points but I just can't see the Chiefs scoring more than 7 pts on any Sunday. I hate this pick.

Giants -7.5 OVER Bucs. The Bucs are also a candidate for the worst team in the league. I'm not sure there is anything they do well, and Byron Leftwich is horrible. The Giants on the other hand do all the things well you need to do to win the Super Bowl. They rush well, they stop the rush well, they pressure the QB, they protect their QB and Eli is offensively capable at this point in his career. I'm now going to shower and scrub the memory of writing that sentence out of my memory.

Browns + 13.5 OVER Ravens. The Ravens look great, but they're already starting to get too much love from the Vegas linemakers. 13.5 is ridiculous. I know The Ravens Offense has looked good the last two weeks, but it's looked good against the Chiefs (who they need a ton of late game points to beat) and The Chargers whose defense is decimated by injury. The Browns suck but I figure they'll lose by 10 not 14.

Texans -3.5 OVER Jaguars. I think the Jags are one of the worst teams in the league as well. Mo-Jo-Drew hasn't gotten going yet, David Garrard is not good, and they still don't have a # 1 reciever or a competent tight end. I also remember when the Jags used to have a good defense, but that appears to have become the past. The Texans on the other hand moved the ball at will against what I consider to be a pretty good Titans D. They have so much talent offensively, I gotta believe they blow this game open by the half, barring an injury to Matt Schaub ( always a concern).

Bears -2.5 OVER Seahawks. No Matt Hasselbeck, no chance for the Seahawks. I'm also not convinced the Seahawks are going to win the NFC West. I think the Niners are better and the Cardinals have potential to be better. I am not impressed by this Seahawks even when they are completely healthy. The Bears on the other hand could gain some momentum from beating the Steelers last week and Jay Cutler leading a game winning drive.

Saints -5.5 OVER Bills. How does Brees throw 9 TDs the first week while scoring 90+ points and only get a 5 pt spread? I swear I don't understand lines sometimes. Who is going to bet Buffalo will lose by less than 5? I smell a blowout. The Saints score everytime they touch the ball and the Bills can't keep up by the middle of the 2nd quarter. The bills run a no huddle offense. You really don't want to do that against Drew Brees. Too much time with the ball in his hands. Teams will start treating him like Peyton by the 5th or 6th week of the season.

Broncos + 1.5 OVER Raiders. I don't like this Broncos team, but I like Jamarcus Russell even less. Did you know that Jamarcus is completing 35% of his passes for a 41.9 QB rating? Did you know that I swear under polygraph test that he looks drunk during games? Did you know he's got 32 million dollars guaranteed? The sad thing is besides Jamarcus, the Raiders actually aren't that (GASP) bad. Their defense is fast and tough. The running game is coming along really nicely with Mcfadden, and Bush, and Zach Miller is a great TE. The problem is Jamarcus can't hit the flat routes or complete a fucking pass. Kyle Orton on the other hand has the EXACT same win-loss record as Tony Romo. 27-12. Not great but a hell of a lot better than Jamarcus who has won 2 games.

Chargers -5.5 OVER Dolphins. This is another tough call. I like what the Dolphins do. They control the clock with the wildcat, and Pennington's accuracy, their defense can bring some pressure with Taylor and Porter. But they just can't score quickly and SD can. Again the Chargers are going to underachieve and make the playoffs because of their joke division, but they are no threat to anything in the AFC. I think we can finally eulogize the LDT era Chargers as a team with a ton of talent that could never fully get it together.

Colts + 1.5 OVER Cardinals. If Gambling were legal I would have bet $1,000 on this one. This is a lock. There is NO Chance the Cardinals beat Peyton. They can't stop the passing game ( Especially the post PED version of Dallas Clark), Donald Brown looked strong on Monday night, and the Colts have Peyton Manning. Having Peyton Manning means the following situation will happen. It will be late in the game with 2-4 minutes left, he'll have the ball and need either a TD or a FG to win the game, he'll march the Colts downfield, changing plays and calling out mismatches until he gets what he wants then he'll put the ball in the only place his receiver can get it. The Colts will score and the legend will grow. It's what he does.

Panthers +9.5 OVER Cowboys. I don't think the Cowboys are good this year. I know Romo will be looking to bounce back, and they have a lot of offensive talent, but the Panthers aren't as bad as they've looked the last couple of weeks. If Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart get going, it will open things up for Steve Smith and Jake Delholmme. I generally NEVER bet on QBs named Jake but I think it's ridiculous to expect the Cowboys to win by 10. I don't think the Boys can beat any team that made the playoffs last year by 10 pts.

Whew... That was a lot more work than expected. I hope it works out with a 13-3 or better week.



  1. Anonymous2:43 PM

    Nice keep posting these I wanna see how your records ends up ever week and at the end of the season. Im 9-2 against the spread with some close calls.

  2. If you're 13-3, you need to spend you're sunday's in a Vegas sportsbook.

  3. You gotta give us some full disclosure here Jon. Having read Simmons for years now, I know to view any of his commentary about any Boston teams or their rivals as if they are being distorted through the funhouse mirror of his own demented Boston fandom - what's your team?

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  5. Good post, but as a New Yorker, I'm a bit disturbed by your constant Manning-bashing.

  6. Anonymous6:57 AM

    "if Gambling were allowed."

    lol..USA the "most democratic" country in the world have restriction about gambling?

    btw..thxs for the previews sinn.