Thursday, October 08, 2009

The Picks Part 3- Week 5 Lines

What's up guys?

I've been super swamped the last few days getting all of this stuff ready for you guys, that I almost forgot to step into my handicapping shirt and write a post about this week's lines.

First I want to talk about how wide open this NFL season is. I can't remember a season where so many of the good teams had question marks. Can Brett Favre and ADP both stay healthy in Minnesota? Can The Giants really compete with the "other" Steve Smith and Mario Mannigham as their WRs? Can the Saints Defense actually stop anybody other than bad teams with inexperienced QBs? Can Peyton Manning win 12-13 games and 3 playoff games all by himself?

The point is there isn't a dominant team this year. There's at least 5 teams that can win the SB, Giants, Ravens, Saints, Vikings, and maybe the Pats. But there's also teams that are playing badly right now that could catch fire like the Steelers once Polamalu comes back.

I have no idea whose going to win anything this year including the AFC West where the Broncos have a 2 game lead on everyone's lock the Chargers.

With that in mind, let's try to pick some games in a very unpredictable year.

1. Browns + 6.5 OVER Bills. The Browns are a mess, not including the fact that Lebron got Braylon Edwards fired for punching his friend. However, the Bills can't score. Trent Edwards is awful, TO is done, they get Marshawn Lynch back but Fred Taylor is already leading the league in rushing, so that's not going to help that much except in getting 9 guys in the box on defense. I hate both of these teams and resent having to pick this game first. EFF you ESPN.

2. Pittsburgh -10.5 OVER Lions. This smells like the game The Steelers really start to get rolling in. The Lions soft D will make up for the fact the Steelers couldn't run the ball against a high school team right now. Plus Stafford is injured which means we'll be treated to the aerial acrobatics of Daunte Culpepper, which as a former Vikings fan I can tell you won't end well. Oh and Kevin Smith is still injured, so the Lions have no run game. I'm guessing the Steelers get over 40 in this one.

3. Chief + 8.5 OVER Cowboys. Tony Romo didn't know it was 4th down on the last play of the Broncos game. Read that again. Then you can check out the video on if you don't believe me. I think the Cowboys have finally reached "don't EVER bet on us to cover" mode. The Chiefs are awful as well and don't do anything well, but they won't lose to the Cowboys by 9. Oh and how's that whole Roy Williams is a # 1 receiver thing working out for the Cowboys?

4. Vikings -10.5 OVER Rams. I love that in the first 4 games of Sunday I've had to write about 4 of the 5 worst teams in the league. The Rams are beyond awful. I don't even have a word to describe it, but if I could make one up, it would be superhorrificcraptacularmatadoristic. We still don't know what to make of the Vikings. They needed a lucky play to beat the 49ers and besides that, they've beaten some bad to mediocre teams. It continues this week as they put 40+ on the Rams and Jared Allen possibly kills Kyle Boller or Marc Bulger whoever the Rams QB is will be hitting the ground. A lot.

5. Raiders +16.5 OVER Giants. This is just a retarded line. Eli is hurt and won't play( nor should he as it's the freakin Raiders) there is 0 chance David Carr beats any team in college or the pros by 17. I'm betting this game for sure. I mean if gambling were legal... Jamarcus Russell is terrible enough that I think the Raiders lose by two TDs, but not more than that. Oh and the Raiders coach is going to be arrested for punching an assistant any day now...

6. Eagles -13.5 OVER Bucs. The Bucs are IMHO the WORST team in football. They've been shut out, they've been blown out, they're starting a guy their coached referred to as a career backup, Cadillac Williams is their best player and has blown out every ligament possible in his knees. And they play in Tampa. The Eagles get Mcnabb back and are actually kinda good if you ignore the fact the Saints blew them out in the first game after Mcnabb got injured.

7. Redskins + 3.5 OVER Panthers. Both these teams have become irrelevant. They're not bad enough to even be notable. They're just teams that will end up between 7-9 and 9-7, not make the playoffs and make their fans reminisce about the preseason when they thought things were going to change this year.

8. Bengals +8.5 OVER Ravens. The Ravens are still getting a lot of love for good reason. There were two questionable calls that led to Pats TDs including Brady pathetically lobbying for the call... But the Ravens also got a bit exposed last week as not quite being as good as advertised on offense or defense. The Bengals on the other hand needed OT to beat the Browns. But the Bengals don't get blown out. Check out the last few years, the Bengals may not always win the close games, but they do keep them close. Which makes you wonder how many of them they would win if Marvin Lewis wasn't mismanaging the clock and gameplan all the time. I almost even like the Bengals to win this straight up... But not quite Ravens win by a TD or less.

9. 49ers -2.5 OVER Falcons. I really like this 49ers team. I love their defense especially Nate Clements and Patrick Willis. I like Glenn Coffee and Vernon Davis and I think Shaun Hill is in danger of becoming underrated. OTOH I think Atlanta is starting to get a bit overrated. Matt Ryan has been solid but hasn't seemed to make the second year leap that's expected by most QBS in their soph campaigns. Plus their D isn't very good. I watched them myself during the Pats game and they're soft against the run. They also don't get much pressure on opposing QBS which is how Shaun Hill gets in trouble. I actually don't think this will be a close game at all.

10. Jags +0.5 OVER Seahawks. My boys the Jags, get the Seneca Wallace version of the Seahawks. MJD and Mike-Simms-Walker(MSW) both got going huge last week against Tennessee and should do the same against the Seahawks. Plus top 6 Fantasy QB David Garrard has been effective as usual. The Seahawks have failed in the Edgerrin James experiment, can't run, can't pass and will have trouble the rest of the way out until hassellbeck is backa t which point they might become average. That's your ceiling Seahawks 8-8. Go JAGS!

11. Texans +5.5 OVER Cardinals. How in the world do the Cards get 5.5 this game? The Cards have shown NOTHING this year. Warner looks old, Fitzgerald has clearly shown that he can't dominate a game with Anquain Boldin in it, their running game is non existant( Including my fantasy sleeper Beanie Wells) and their D still sucks. The Texans on the other hand have a great but still off track offense, and a VERY solid defense led by Mario Williams and Demeco Ryans. I don't even know why the Cards are favored except that their at home and they sorta are ok at home. Maybe? My head is starting to hurt...

12. Broncos +3.5 OVER Pats. For the third week in a row I'm picking against the Pats. This Broncos team is getting A LOT of lucky breaks. Plus historically in the AFC it works like this Pats always beat the Steelers and Chargers and lose to the Broncos in the playoffs. The Colts always lose to the Chargers, and beat the Broncos. The Steelers lose to the Pats, beat the Chargers and the Broncos. So there's some history here. Plus, that was a bullshit win last week against the Ravens. We( the Pats I dunno why I say we) needed two bail out calls from the refs and Brady was sailing passes 5 feet over receivers heads most notably on the 3rd down that gave the Ravens a final possesion. If you didn't watch the game Brady had Welker WIDE open at the first down line and lofted a pass Shaq couldn't have caught. Note to Brady, Welker is 5'8 not 7'6. Plus this is at Denver where there is a legitimate homefield advantage. Believe or not I like Orton to get a win here.

13. Colts - 3.5 OVER Titans. These games are usually tough 14-10 affairs, but this year I think Peyton is too sharp and the Titans are bad defensively. What Manning is doing is incredible. He's out there with 2 new receivers, a new head coach, offensive coordinator, no running game and a suspect D. I've never seen QB played at this high of a level. He's making EVERYONE on offense better, throwing for over 300 yards a game every game and is scarier than Jason Voorhees with 3 minutes on the clock and a 4 point lead. As much as I used to dislike him what he's doing this year is truly remarkable.

14. Jets - 1.5 OVER Dolphins. I don't know what to make of either of these teams. Mark Sanchez was exposed as an overrated rookie last week. But that Jets D still held Drew Brees without a TD which is no small feat. The Dolphins can keep it close with anyone because of their rushing attack and clock control. But ultimately I just don't think you can beat Rex Ryan with a 2nd year QB. The blitz will be coming fast and furious for Chad Henne and I think that he makes more mistakes than Sanchez this week.

Last week I went 9-7 which was my worst week thus far. Kinda PO'd still but I'm bouncing back strong this week. I can feel it.



  1. Anonymous8:29 PM

    You should consider sports writing... you never know ;). Dream big. I love your analysis of the games though. It gives me a good preview of what is to come and I compare my thoughts with yours so its interesting.

    Love/Hate Peyton... he is so good. Good thing I'm a hoosier and can legitimately root for the D'OLTS (our nickname for the Colts).

    Liked that video too.


  2. Podcast on the backburner? :(

  3. Anonymous11:00 AM

    Com'on! there's no home field advantage in Denver. The modern stadiums and commercial breaks killed fan involvement in the pros. And Mile High is 5,000ft above sea level, not 10,000ft or 20,000ft. These highly trained athletes might feel extra muscle aches on the way home, but not during the game. Not to mention they have oxygen on the sidelines at all games regardless of altitude.


    p.s. love your sports blogs!

  4. Anonymous7:41 AM

    ok, maybe i was wrong. Pats got out coached and Brady's not back yet.