Friday, October 02, 2009

The Picks Part 2- Week 4 Lines.

What's up guys?

Today before the big announcement coming in 2 hours and 34 mins...

I want to get back to my thug thizzle, of making football picks against the spread.

Last week I went 10-6 which puts me in the 97% percentile and also still in the top 4k in my 18k person pick league. I did completely whiff on a couple of picks especially the ones giving over 7 pts, but it's too be expected when you have to pick all 16 games every week.

Oh well,

You can check my picks out here:


Alright let's jump right into this topsy turvy NFL schedule, where I'm still not jumpin on the Vikings bandwagon, I think Tennessee is NOT done, and I'm not sure how good the Jets, or Saints actually are.

1. Lions + 10.5 OVER Bears. I don't know if the Bears are that good. They beat a ok Pittsburgh team that missed 2 FGs in the last 5 minutes. They beat a terrible Seahawks team without their starting QB, so I'm unsure about them. I think they beat the Lions here, but I would stay away from this game like the plague as a gambler. 10.5 is WAY too many points to give an offense that hasn't gotten on track despite having Matt Forte and Jay Cutler.

2. Bengals -2.5 OVER Browns. Are the Browns the worst team in the league? I think we can all agree that Mangini is far from a mangenius. The Browns are starting Derek Anderson again despite the fact that he threw 3 picks in replacement duty after Brady Quinn got benched. This Bengals team on the other hand has two quality wins in the last two weeks. They beat a pretty good Green Bay team and then came back in the last few minutes to beat the Steelers. Since I actually am in Vegas this weekend I'll be betting this game heavily.

3. Colts -8.5 OVER the Seahawks. No Hassellbeck, no chance for the Seahawks. Plus they're going to Indy where it's loud and difficult to play. Plus Peyton still seems like he's on another planet right now. I picked up Pierre Garcon in fantasy because Peyton seems to be determined to get him a TD every game.

4. Giants -9.5 OVER Chiefs. The Chiefs are another terrible team, they just got blown out by the Ravens, and the Giants have yet to make a statement yet. I smell a blowout here.

5. Tampa Bay +7.5 OVER Redskins. I wouldn't watch this game if you paid me. Well that's not true, but it'd have to be more than $20 an hour to endure this one. I can't name one player I'm excited to see on either of these teams. Interesting sidenote, Tampa Bay will be starting a rookie QB not named Matt Sanchez on the road in this one. Still don't think the Redskins can score 14 pts so I'm not worried.

6. Titans -2.5 OVER Jaguars. I think if ANY team can come back from 0-3 and make the playoffs it has to be Tennessee. They still have a good defense as evidenced by how they shut the Jets and Sanchez down in the 2nd half last week. They just seem to be getting a bunch of bad breaks. I think they start to turn it around this week and end up 3-4 or 4-3 by week 7.

7. Raiders + 9.5 OVER Texans. What exactly have the Texans done to justify them getting 9.5 pts over Oakland? I know Jamarcus Russell is an atrocity against god. I know the Raiders are terrible but the Texans don't seem to be all that great either. These are both 1-2 teams and the Raiders don't win many games, but they do keep them close. I love this line if it moves to over 10 by gametime.

8. Baltimore +2.5 OVER Patriots. I think it's retarded that people are still betting the Pats heavy enough to make them a favorite still. The Ravens look like the best team in football. They're gonna blitz the hell out of Brady ( unlike Atl), Moss and Welker are banged up, and fossilized Fred Taylor is the main running threat for the Pats. Meanwhile the Ravens offense just smoked the Chiefs, they have a two headed running back monster and Joe Flacco has gotten better every week. I'm betting against the Pats again.

9. Saints -6.5 OVER Jets. I think we saw some cracks in the Jets armor last week against Tennessee. I also think it doesn't matter what kind of defense you play against Drew Brees he's going to throw TDs and put up points. I've gone back and forth on this one, but I think the combination of Sanchez being on the road and having to throw early to keep up with Brees' record setting pace will lead to the Jets first L.

10.Bills -1.5 OVER Dolphins. No Chad Pennington, no big play players, a receiver who can't catch sure TDs in the endzone. No chance for the Dolphins. The Bills are terrible as well, but this Dolphins team is going to start 0-8.

11. Broncos + 3.5 OVER Cowboys. This one is not hard at all. The Broncos feel like a team that's getting every bounce. The Cowboys on the other hand are without their #1 and # 2 RBs, have Tony Romo as their QB and didn't get a sack or turnover until they faced Jake " The Dream Killer" Delholmme. Plus there is no added incentive for the Cowboys like trying to win at their new Billion dollar shrine to Jerry Jones' ego.

12.49ers - 10.5 OVER Rams. The Rams suck. The 49ers should have won that game against Minny without Frank Gore. I don't know if the Rams do anything average. It seems like they are terrible in EVERY facet of the game. Can't run, can't throw, can't pass, can't catch, can't block or get pressure. I hate over 10 pt spreads, because you never know in THE National Football League. But I'm betting against the Rams, Dolphins, Chiefs, Redskins, and Bucs every week. Except this week when the Redskins and Bucs play each other.

13. Chargers + 6.5 OVER Steelers. The Steelers are 1-2. We know their good, but they can't keep relying on Ben to do everything and bail them out every 4th quarter. SD tends to play the Steelers badly, and their o and d lines are a mess as Savoy likes to constantly text me. But I still see a close game that the Steelers win by a fg.

14. Vikings -3.5 OVER Packers. This is the game of the week and the second best game of the year to when Favre goes back to Green Bay. I like this Packers team for some reason. I like their receivers, I like Rodgers, I like their D. But they don't have a real running game. Minnesota has a young man I like to call Purple Jesus. Gotta like the Vikes here. though I would be just as happy if Favre lost to his old team.

Allright let's see how it goes.



  1. Anonymous12:30 PM

    seeing bengals line at -5.5 now...

  2. Anonymous4:31 PM

    Good choice with Garcon, any receiver of Manning's is likely to get a TD ;).

    If you need a defensive line man look up Mathis from the Colts.

  3. Anonymous11:53 PM

    nice picks as usual however some of the games I feel they might not be able to cover. Lucky you arent playing with real money!

  4. Shenanigan11:37 AM

    Liking your picks this week, went 13-3 last week myself, altho a few of them could have gone either way ha..took a look at your pickum page, you know you didn't pick the Vikes-Pack game yet on there?